The global economy will slow further in the coming year as the energy shock triggered by Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to spur inflationary pressures, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported Tuesday. Growth in the US and Europe is expected to decelerate sharply.
Global GDP is expected to grow at a modest 3.1% this year before slowing to 2.2% next year, according to a report by the OECD. Global GDP is expected to recover moderately to a subpar 2.7% pace in 2024.
“Growth in 2023 is strongly dependent on the major Asian emerging market economies, who will account for close to three-quarters of global GDP growth next year, with the United States and Europe decelerating sharply,” according to the OECD.
“Persistent inflation, high energy prices, weak real household income growth, falling confidence and tighter financial conditions are all expected to curtail growth,” the organization reported. “Higher interest rates, while necessary to moderate inflation, will increase financial challenges for both households and corporate borrowers.”
Inflation is expected to remain high in the OECD area at more than 9% this year. It’s expected to moderate to 6.6% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024.
“The global economy is facing serious headwinds. We are dealing with a major energy crisis and risks continue to be titled to the downside with lower global growth, high inflation, weak confidence and high levels of uncertainty making successful navigation of the economy out of this crisis and back toward a sustainable recovery very challenging,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.
“An end to the war and a just peace for Ukraine would be the most impactful way to improve the global economic outlook right now,” Cormann said. “Until this happens, it is important that governments deploy both short- and medium-term policy measures to confront the crisis to cushion its impact in the short term while building the foundations for a stronger and sustainable recovery.”