Consumer confidence in the US fell in April, the Conference Board reported today. Its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 101.3 (1985=100), down from 104.0 in March. While the Present Situation Index rose, the Expectations Index fell.
“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at The Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose to a reading of 151.1 (1985=100) from 148.9 reported in March.
The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — fell to a reading of 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0 reported in March. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 — the level associated with a recession within the next year — every month since February 2022, except for a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve, and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months,” Ozyildirim said. “They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”
He noted April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects a deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and more.
Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market improved slightly in April, as 48.4% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, up slightly from 47.9% reported in March. In addition, 11.1% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, down slightly from 11.4%.
On the other hand, consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was less positive. While 12.5% of consumers expect more jobs to be available — down from 15.5% in March — the report found that 21.0% anticipate fewer jobs, up slightly from 20.5%.