Economists in today’s Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Livingstone Survey forecast US real gross domestic product to contract 0.7% in the second half of the year. That’s an improvement from the previous survey six months ago when they had forecast a contraction of 1.0%.
They foresee a return to growth in the first half of 2023 with a projected GDP growth rate of 1.0%. That’s just below their projected growth rate for the first half of this year of 1.1%.
Economists in the survey also weighed in on the US unemployment rate. They now predict a 4.1% jobless rate in this upcoming December, down from their earlier forecast of 4.9%.
Their unemployment rate forecast for the second half of next year was 4.6%.
On their year-over-year forecast for consumer price index inflation, the economists revised their predictions downward from the estimates in the December 2022 survey. They now expect CPI inflation to fall to 4.1% in 2023, down from the previous estimate of 4.4%.
The Livingston Survey was launched in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph Livingston. It is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. The June survey included 15 forecasters.