The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose for the second consecutive month in December. It now stands at a reading of 110.7 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. In addition, the perceived likelihood of a recession fell to its lowest level this year.
“December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market and personal income prospects over the next six months,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a press statement.
Rising prices remained a top concern, according to Peterson. However, consumers’ perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months abated in December to the lowest level seen this year; however, two-thirds still perceive a downturn as possible in 2024.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose to a reading of 148.5 (1985=100) from 136.5 reported in November.
The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — rose to a reading of 85.6 (1985=100) in December, up from its downwardly revised reading of 77.4 in November. The increase brings the expectations index back to the levels of optimism last seen in July of this year, according to The Conference Board.
Peterson noted that while December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were most notable among householders aged 35 to 54 as well as those earning $125,000 and above.
Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was more positive in December. While 21.7% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 18.6% in November, 16.5% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 18.9%.
Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also more positive in December; 40.7% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, up from 38.6% in November. In addition, 13.2% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, down from 15.6%.
Also, consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was more optimistic in December. While 17.8% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 16.7% in November, 17.2% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 20.1%.