Employers and managers undoubtedly haven’t forgotten the so-called Great Resignation, the large-scale exodus of employees that began in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and was only declared over in mid-2023.
Now, as we enter 2025, some labor market observers are predicting a resurgence of the Great Resignation. Is it possible that the widespread attrition that plagued employers in the aftermath of the pandemic will be back again so soon?
While several industry experts we spoke with acknowledge the labor market is facing some turbulence, the general sense is that it’s too soon to declare Great Resignation 2.0.
Employee Sentiment Warning Signs
The basis for claims of a renewed Great Resignation are largely based on employee sentiment, including recent data from a ResumeTemplates.com survey. A high percentage of workers report being dissatisfied with their current positions as well as an intent to look for opportunities elsewhere.
Writing for Forbes, Roberta Matuson notes that, according to the ResumeTemplates.com survey, “56 percent of full-time employees in the U.S. want a new job in 2025, and 27 percent have already started searching, One in three plan to quit their current job next year, even if they don’t have a new one lined up!”
“Predictions of a renewed ‘Great Resignation’ in 2025 are not baseless,” Dr. Heather Lamb, a workplace well-being expert, says. “A variety of factors point toward workforce volatility potentially increasing in the months to come.” For instance, she says, “Increasing operational costs are putting pressure on companies to reevaluate their benefits packages, and ongoing discussions around a return to in-office work could become a sore spot for employees who have become accustomed to flexibility.”
Economists are starting to see early signs of labor market instability. “Employees are indicating through employee engagement surveys that they are unhappy with their current job satisfaction level, especially in terms of work-life balance and opportunities for career development. This disengagement almost always leads to higher turnover,” says Lamb.
Of course, it’s much easier to tell a pollster you plan to quit your job, even without a new one lined up, than it is to turn in your notice. Consequently, it can be very difficult to predict when the labor market has reached a tipping point sufficient to send it into another Great Resignation, if it ever reaches such a point again at all. While there does seem to be trouble brewing in the form of low employee satisfaction, is it enough to start ringing the alarm bells?
Employers Aren’t Panicking
Employers have a tremendous interest in predicting and mitigating another Great Resignation and the disruptions it promises. But employers don’t seem overly concerned about the prospect of another Great Resignation, and that alone should give naysayers some pause.
“It’s tough to foresee something like a second Great Resignation, as there is so much about 2025 that is uncertain,” says Russ Wakelin, Head of Global Product Development within Rewards Data Intelligence at WTW. “That said, data from the recently published December 2024 edition of WTW’s Salary Budget Planning Report does confirm employers are increasingly less concerned about talent retention. For example, 38% of participating companies said they are not or only slightly concerned about talent attraction and retention; this is up nearly 10% from 2022.”
In addition to employer survey responses, their actions around compensation can also be indicative of employer labor market sentiment. Employers fearful of losing talent or struggling to bring in new workers are likely to offer higher salaries, but that’s not what the data are showing. “Salary budgets were in a relatively high growth pattern from 2021-2023, but in 2024 respondents in the U.S. have indicated this has slowed and stabilized at around 4%,” says Wakelin. “So, while this data does not help answer the question ‘will there be another Great Resignation,’ it does support the idea that employers certainly don’t think so, and thus, don’t feel the need to invest heavily to prevent one.”
Conditions Are Different Today than in 2022-2023
The fallout from the once-in-a-century pandemic was a significant contributing factor to the Great Resignation. Faced with illness, caretaking responsibilities, burdensome health and safety requirements and even reflection on their own mortality, millions of workers decided they just didn’t want to be in the workforce any longer. While many employees may still be unhappy with their current jobs, the world is in a different place today, just a couple years later.
“Given the current state of demand in the U.S., the likelihood of another ‘Great Resignation’ is low but there are definite vulnerabilities in the labor market due to the fact that supply of labor hasn’t changed – we are still in a labor shortage,” says Lori Wisper, Work & Rewards Global Solutions Leader at WTW. “So, while I don’t think we will have the huge attrition that we saw in 2021-2022, I do think more employees will leave their current jobs this year than we saw in 2025. Here’s why:
- With lower interest rates (and possibly more to come), there will be more investment, which generally means growth. Growth also leads to higher demand for labor.
- The election results seem to point to a “business friendly” new administration which will likely mean less regulation, possibly lower corporate taxes and a greater focus on U.S.-based goods and services, all of which could also mean great growth. The flip side is that there will also likely be more M&A deals, possibly higher prices and greater inflation and fewer immigrant workers available all of which could restrict growth.
- While many employees who left jobs in 2021-2022 will not likely be the ones to move again (their high salaries would make that hard to do in the current market), there were many employees who stuck with their employers during that time that were overlooked when the big pay raises were doled out – they are the group that are high risk and the ones employers should be focused on in 2025.”
In other words, while employee dissatisfaction is a key ingredient to widespread attrition, the world we’re living in now may not be the perfect storm we saw just a few years ago. While there may be some reshuffling and general labor market volatility, employers are generally remaining calm for the time being.
Lin Grensing-Pophal is a Contributing Editor at HR Daily Advisor.
The post <strong>Is the Great Resignation Making a Comeback in 2025?</strong> appeared first on HR Daily Advisor.