The March employment situation was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, April 4. It estimated a large increase in nonfarm payroll employment of 228,000, soaring over consensus expectations of 140,000—higher than the average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months. February estimates were revised down by 34,000, from 151,000 to 117,000, while January estimates were revised down 14,000, from 125,000 to 111,000. With these revisions, nonfarm payroll employment in both January and February was 48,000 less than previously reported. On a sectoral basis, nonfarm payroll employment gains in March were led by health care, which added 54,000 jobs, social assistance, which added 24,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing, which added 23,000 jobs. Temporary help services employment also shed an additional 6,400 jobs, holding at 2.53 million. The penetration rate also held at a rate of 1.58%.
Headline numbers suggest the labor market overachieved expectations in March, with more than 200,000 jobs added. However, notable downward revisions for previous months show job gains were not as solid as initially estimated. Job growth remains concentrated within just a few sectors, most notably health care, due to structural increases in demand for health care services over the long run. Anticipated reductions in the federal workforce have yet to significantly materialize in the jobs report. Upcoming headwinds could disincentive hiring at the macroeconomic level, such as major shifts in trade policy, sticky inflation, and elevated interest rates.
The rate at which temporary help services employment is contracting appears to be slowing. However, due to economic headwinds and uncertainty, recovery in the staffing industry is likely to experience a slowdown as well. With labor costs already high, and labor leverage still with employers, the low-hiring, low-firing environment that the labor market is currently in is likely to persist in the short term. With demand for labor concentrated within a handful of sectors, finding opportunities for growth will prove challenging. Therefore, staffing companies should take a page out of their clients’ playbook: adapting to economic conditions by increasing productivity. While there is no magic recipe for success, staffing firms that can improve competitiveness and develop deeper relationships with clients will find it easier to capture market share in a growth-constrained environment.
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