US consumers were slightly less optimistic about their chances of finding a new job should they lose their current one. This is according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s April 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The mean perceived probability of finding a replacement job fell for the fourth month in a row in April to 50.9% from March’s level of 51.2%. This is the lowest reading in this series since April 2021.
Still, consumers were slightly more confident they would not lose their own jobs in the next 12 months. The probability of losing one’s own job fell 0.6 of a percentage point in April to 15.1%. Meanwhile, the probability of voluntarily quitting one’s job within the next 12 months fell by 1.2 percentage points to 19.4%.
Mean unemployment rate expectations — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — increased by one percentage point to 37.2%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 38.2%.
Consumers’ expectations regarding their own earnings growth decreased slightly. Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%. The decline was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less. Still, the current reading remains above the 2.0% to 2.2% levels at the onset of the pandemic.