Employment Trends Index points to historically fast job growth, increased wages

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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index now signals very strong jobs growth over the coming months. The index reading for March, released today, jumped to 102.44, up from a downwardly revised reading of 100.01 in February.

“Despite the recent increase in infection rates, the vaccination campaign is progressing at a rate that should significantly reduce the spread of the virus in the next couple of months,” said Gad Levanon, head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Labor intensive in-person services will continue to reopen, and consumers flush with cash due to a year of elevated savings and strong government stimulus will be willing and able to spend.”

All this will lead to historically fast employment growth in the coming quarters, according to Levanon, with the unemployment rate expected to reach about 4% a year from now, and decline further through the rest of 2022.

“Tight labor markets and labor shortages will resurface in the coming year, leading to faster wage growth,” he said.