When asked about growth in US gross domestic product, the median projection among forecasters was 0.4% this year, down from 0.9% growth in 2022, according to the “April 2023 Outlook” report released today by the National Association for Business Economics. The median forecast for growth in 2024 was a bit higher at 1.7%.
However, one-third of respondents to the report’s survey put the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at between 26% and 50%. A bit over a third of respondents, 38%, put the probability at between 51 and 75%.
“Respondents to the latest NABE Outlook Survey are divided as to whether a recession in the US is likely in the next year,” said NABE President Julia Coronado in a press release. “However, the median forecast calls for economic growth through 2024 to be modest. On balance, the panel expects higher interest rates in 2023 than forecasted in the February 2023 Outlook Survey. Interest rates are expected to decline, and inflation is expected to slow in 2024, while job growth is anticipated to moderate and the unemployment rate to rise.”
Panelists also expect average monthly US nonfarm payrolls to increase by an average of 142,000 this year with much of the job growth in the second half of the year.
The panel forecasts a 3.7% average annual unemployment rate for 2023, down from 3.9% in the previous survey. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5% in the first half of 2023 but will rise in the second half of the year, reaching 4% in the fourth quarter.
Nonfarm business compensation per hour is projected to increase 4.3% this year.
NABE’s survey included 45 professional forecasters and was conducted from May 2 through May 9.