US gross domestic product could remain below its fourth quarter 2019 level until the second half of 2022, according to almost half of respondents in a survey of 235 members of the National Association for Business Economics, a professional association for applied economists. In addition, 80% indicate there is at least a one-in-four chance of a “double dip” recession.
NABE released the results of its “Economic Policy Survey” today, which also looked at the government’s fiscal response to the economic crisis created by the pandemic.
It found that 40% of respondents said Congress’ fiscal response to the recession was insufficient, 37% said the response is adequate and 11% said the response is excessive.
“Nearly three out of four panelists believe the optimal size for the next fiscal package to be $1 trillion or greater, compared to 17% who favor a smaller package,” said NABE President Constance Hunter.
Looking at global economic conditions, 41% of respondents do not expect the global economy to get back to its pre-pandemic level until at least 2022.
The survey took place. between July 30 and Aug. 10.