US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the advance estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is higher than economists had forecast, but below growth of 3.2% in the third quarter.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.6% rate. Reuters reported it could be the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve’s fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s kick in. In addition, most economists expect a recession by the second half of the year, though mild compared to previous downturns.
Today’s announcement reflects the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. A second estimate will be released on Feb. 23.
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports.
Meanwhile, imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased in the fourth quarter.