Around this time last year, SIA forecast healthcare temporary staffing revenue would grow 4% in 2020, and nobody had heard of Covid-19.
SIA President Barry Asin recalled the projection during an opening keynote today at this year’s virtual Healthcare Staffing Summit.
“We revealed our forecast for 2020 revenue growth in healthcare and it was looking like it was going to be a pretty humdrum sort of year, low single-digit growth in the 4% range and maybe more of the same from what we had in 2019,” Asin said.
Then the pandemic happened and the world was turned on its head.
In their opening keynote today, Asin and SIA Research Director Tony Gregoire reported US healthcare temporary staffing revenue is now forecast to fall 4% this year before rising 4% in 2021; though things could change depending on the trajectory of Covid-19.
Also, the pandemic isn’t the only thing affecting healthcare staffing. Other influences may also come into play.
The US Affordable Care Act remains a fluid situation, Gregoire said. The act brought double-digit growth in healthcare staffing in 2015 and 2016. Looking ahead, a Democratic sweep in next week’s election could eventually result in expansion of the ACA, which would impact areas where uninsured rates are still high, especially states without Medicaid expansion. Of course, Washington politics could also cause the ACA to be unwound to a degree. However, Gregoire said such an unwinding can likely be ruled out for another two years as it would likely require a Republican election sweep. The Supreme Court is a wild card.
“And just to be clear, I’m not saying that expanding ACA is a good thing or bad thing overall,” Gregoire said. “I’m just speaking to the impact on demand for healthcare staffing and the election may have implications for healthcare staffing beyond raising the number of insured.”
The pandemic remains a key issue.
“I do think the main story for 2021 will still be the virus and hopefully the vaccine and economic recovery,” Gregoire said.
Other factors will also affect healthcare staffing during this particularly dynamic time.
The Healthcare Staffing Summit takes place today and tomorrow online.