On balance, there was a slight increase in the US economic activity since early January, according to the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book report released March 6. The US labor market tightness eased further, with improved labor availability and employee retention across nearly all districts.
The Beige Book reported employers generally found it easier to fill open positions and to find qualified applicants, although challenges persisted in hiring for highly skilled roles including healthcare professionals, engineers and skilled trades specialists such as welders and mechanics.
Wages continued to grow across districts at a slower pace.
Looking at the overall economy, eight districts reported slight to modest growth in activity, three others reported no change and only one district reported a slight softening.
Here are insights from the Federal Reserve districts:
Boston. Economic activity increased at a slow pace, while employment gains were modest amid mixed hiring activity. Wage growth was moderate. Staffing industry contacts saw ongoing declines in sign-on and retention bonuses as well as a trend away from remote work arrangements, pointing to an increase in employer bargaining power. A workforce development contact said that transportation and childcare costs continued to present barriers to employment among candidates for entry-level positions. Hiring plans for the rest of 2024 call for only modest increases in employment, and wage increases are expected to be moderate.
New York. Regional economic activity in the district flattened after a period of sustained weakness. Labor market conditions remained solid, with slight growth in employment and a modest wage increase. Labor demand and labor supply continued to come into better balance. Though layoffs remained limited, announcements of forthcoming reductions in the region’s banking and finance sectors reflected some signs of weakening on the horizon. Still, businesses in most sectors plan to increase headcounts in the coming months.
Philadelphia. Business activity resumed a slight decline, with slight employment growth and improved labor availability. Wages subsided. Staffing firms also noted rising order activity, which had been soft for much of last year. Expectations for economic growth over the next six months remain positive but below historical averages.
Cleveland. District business activity increased slightly. Some firms noted increased labor availability, reduced turnover and easing wage pressures. Business services firms continued to raise rates based on market conditions. Staffing levels remained flat. Several contacts noted that reduced turnover and increased worker availability had allowed them to hire more selectively or replace underperforming workers.
Richmond, Virginia. The district saw little growth. Employment rose and price growth was unchanged, keeping inflation moderately elevated. Labor availability varied by worker type, with skills and trades workers more difficult to find.
Atlanta. Economic activity was little changed, with eased labor markets and wage pressures eased. Hiring remained steady. However, most contacts reported that despite an increase in the pool of applicants, finding workers remained challenging.
Chicago. Economic activity rose modestly in January and early February. Employment increased modestly. Many contacts noted cooling labor market conditions. There were reports of increased job applications per posting, improved applicant quality, job posting removals and layoffs. Wages rose moderately, while financial conditions tightened.
St. Louis. Economic activity increased slightly over the past few weeks. While labor markets remain tight overall, several firms reported being fully staffed or overstaffed relative to consumer demand. Contacts reported a mixed outlook for the coming year, although the outlook has improved since mid-December 2023.
Minneapolis. Economic activity was up slightly in the Minneapolis district. Employment grew some, but labor demand softened. Demand for full-time, year-round employees fell modestly, particularly among leisure and hospitality firms affected by unseasonal winter conditions. Wage pressures continued to moderate, and prices rose modestly.
Kansas City. Economic activity remained stable in the district. Job gains were modest and wage growth, while elevated, was tied closer to worker performance. Most contacts continued to report tight labor markets, but they also indicated the quality of applicants and recent hires improved recently. As staffing levels improved, businesses in both manufacturing and services sectors continued to modestly reduce average weekly hours and use of part-time work.
Dallas. Economic activity expanded modestly with improved labor availability improved and moderate wage growth. Staffing firms cited some reprieve in wage pressures. Outlooks overall were less pessimistic.
San Francisco. Economic activity grew slightly from January to mid-February. Employment levels rose, and labor availability improved. Wage growth eased. Reports indicated that applicant pools expanded and contained more qualified candidates.