The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US no longer points to a recession, though gross domestic product growth is still forecast to slow. Although the index declined in January, it did so at the slowest pace since March 2023.
“While the declining [Leading Economic Index] continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its 10 components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024),” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead.”
Zabinska-La Monica continued, “while no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over [the second and third quarters].”
The index fell 0.4% in January to a reading of 102.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2% in December 2023. Weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative.
Overall, the index contracted 3.0% over the six months between July 2023 and January, a smaller decrease than the 4.1% contraction over the previous six months.