There was mostly little change in US economic activity in the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book report released Jan. 17 covering the past few weeks. The US labor market remained tight, the report said.
However, nearly all districts reported signs of a cooling labor market. These signs included larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more selective hiring by firms and easing of wage pressures. Companies in many districts also expected wage growth to fall over the coming year.
Looking at the overall economy, only four districts reported modest growth. Growth held steady in others, while only one district reported a moderate decline. Manufacturing activity fell in all districts.
Here are insights by Federal Reserve district:
Boston. On average, economic activity declined slightly in this district. Employment was flat, and wage growth was moderate. Hiring became easier on balance. Attrition rates fell to below-average levels.
New York. This district also experienced a slight decline in economic activity. Wages grew modestly. Labor market conditions cooled but remained solid.
Philadelphia. Business activity held steady during the holiday season and employment grew slightly. Several contacts, including staffing firms, noted businesses were becoming more selective when hiring.
Cleveland. Activity also saw a slight increase in recent weeks in the Cleveland district. However, contacts reported employment was flat to down. Little change in employment was foreseen for the coming months.
Richmond, Virginia. The district saw a mild economic expansion over the past few weeks. Employment grew at a moderate pace and the labor market remained tight.
Atlanta. The economy here grew slowly, but some firms slowed hiring and wage pressure eased.
Chicago. Economic activity was up modestly in late November and December 2023. Employment increased moderately as well. Some contacts reported difficulty finding workers — especially in manufacturing — but there were signs the labor market was cooling. Wages rose, but wage pressure has eased compared to six months ago.
St. Louis. Economic activity remained unchanged over the past few weeks, as have employment levels. Still, labor markets remained tight.
Minneapolis. The economy contracted slightly in the Minneapolis district. Employment grew modestly, though job openings were flat or down. “We are seeing more clients settling in with who they have and not hiring unless the candidate is perfect,” a contact at a Montana staffing firm said.
Kansas City, Missouri. This district saw a modest decline in economic activity in late November and December 2023. Some businesses did not hire seasonal employees, while other reported their conversions from seasonal employees to permanent employees was down compared to previous years.
Dallas. The economy expanded at a modest pace. Job growth picked up in the service sector. Employment expanded modestly.
San Francisco. Economic activity was stable. Labor availability improved and employment levels rose. Wage growth moderated.