The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence improved, rising to a level of 53 this quarter from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The measure is now above 50, which reflects more positive than negative responses. It’s the first time the reading has been above 50 since the first quarter of 2022.
“CEOs are feeling better about the economy but remain cautious about risks ahead,” Roger Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and trustee of The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “In supplemental questions asked this quarter, CEOs overwhelmingly identified political uncertainty ahead of US elections (51%) as the greatest US challenge affecting businesses in 2024. Meanwhile, CEOs said the greatest global challenge affecting businesses this year is the spread of existing wars (46%).”
Among the findings of the first-quarter survey:
- 32% of CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from 18% in Q4. In addition, 22% said conditions were worse, down from 32% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- On the assessment of their industries, 31% of CEOs said their industries improved compared to six months ago, up from 27%. Conversely, 25% said conditions were worse, down from 37% in the previous quarter.
- In addition, 36% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 19% in the previous quarter, while 27% expect conditions to worsen, down significantly from 47%.
- More than one-third of CEOs, 35%, expect to expand their workforces over the next 12 months, down only slightly from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, 23% of CEOs expect to reduce their workforce, up from 13%. That said, 31% of CEOs reported problems attracting qualified workers, though only in key areas, similar to the 32% in the fourth-quarter survey. Only 15% report serious and widespread problems attracting qualified workers, unchanged from the fourth quarter.
- 72% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, edging up from 71% in Q4.
The survey included responses from 138 CEOs and was conducted between Jan. 16 and Jan. 29.